● Article
DUAN Chanjuan, ZHANG Pan, QIAO Cheng, LI Ting, KONG Yunxin, DONG Dong, DONG Zongmei, JIANG Wenxiu, JIANG Yixue, ZHU Xuan, LIU De
Objective To analyze changes in the disease burden of tumors among adolescents aged 10-24 years in China from 1990 to 2021, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating tumor prevention and control strategies for adolescents. Methods In March 2025, disease burden data of tumors among adolescents aged 10-24 years in China from 1990 to 2021, including incidence, mortality, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY), Years of Life Lost (YLL), and Years Lived with Disability (YLD), were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Joinpoint software was used to analyze the temporal changing trends in disease burden, and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict the age-standardized incidence rate, mortality rate, DALY rate, YLL rate, and YLD rate of tumors among adolescents in China from 2022 to 2040. Results Compared with 1990, in 2021, the mortality, DALY rate, and YLL rate of tumors among adolescents aged 10-24 years in China decreased by 42.92%, 42.21%, and 42.93%, respectively, with age-standardized rates decreasing by 41.37%, 41.22%, and 41.96%, respectively. The incidence and YLD rate of tumors among adolescents in China increased by 20.71% and 51.27%, respectively, with age-standardized rates increasing by 24.72% and 56.68%, respectively. In 2021, the incidence of tumors among male adolescents in China increased by 23.16% compared to 1990, while the incidence among females increased by 17.53%. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that during 1990-2021, the age-standardized mortality, DALY rate, and YLL rate of tumors among adolescents aged 20-24 years in China exhibited an overall downward trend (AAPCmortality=-1.71%, AAPCDALY=-1.70%, AAPCYLL=-1.74%, all P<0.05), whereas the age-standardized incidence and YLD rate showed an overall upward trend (AAPCincidence =0.68%, AAPCYLD =1.47%, both P<0.05). The BAPC model indicated that from 2022 to 2040, the age-standardized incidence and YLD rate of tumors among adolescents aged 10-24 years in China would continue to rise, reaching 17.55/100 000 and 9.02/100 000, respectively, representing increases of 11.85% and 16.54% compared to 2021. The age-standardized mortality, DALY rate, and YLL rate were projected to increase slightly, reaching 5.50/100 000, 397.65/100 000, and 388.37/100 000 by 2040, representing increases of 3.77%, 2.90%, and 2.55% compared to 2021. From 2022 to 2040, the disease burden of tumors among male adolescents was expected to remain higher compared to females. Conclusions From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate, DALY rate, and YLL rate of tumors among adolescents aged 10-24 years in China decreased, while the age-standardized incidence and YLD rate increased. Predictions show that the disease burden of tumors among adolescents in China will continue to increase from 2022 to 2040. The situation for tumor prevention and control among adolescents in China is difficult. It is necessary to further strengthen science popularization related to adolescents’ tumor prevention and treatment, enhance the monitoring and intervention of risk factors for tumors, and especially focus on male adolescents to improve their awareness and capacity in tumor prevention and treatment, thereby reducing the incidence of tumors among adolescents.