目的 分析2018—2022年湖里区病毒性肝炎疫情状况,为防控工作提供依据。方法 收集湖里区2018—2022年全区病毒性肝炎疫情数据,采用描述性研究分析病毒性肝炎的流行特点,运用ARIMA模型预测未来两年发病数。结果 2018—2022年,全区共报告病毒性肝炎8 681例,期间报告发病率整体呈上升趋势(χ2=166.91,P＜0.01);各型肝炎中乙肝病例数最多(占比93.73%);病例集中在15～59岁年龄组(占比89.99%);男女比例为1.8∶1。ARIMA模型预测2023、2024年的病毒性肝炎发病率为211.32/10万、229.44/10万。结论 湖里区近五年病毒性肝炎发病率居高不下,需进一步加大肝炎防治知识的宣教、加强免疫接种、关注高危人群。　

Objective To analyze the epidemic status of viral hepatitis in Huli District from 2018 to 2022, so as to provide a basis for prevention and control. Methods The epidemiological data of viral hepatitis in Huli District from 2018 to 2022 were collected, the epidemic characteristics of viral hepatitis were analyzed by descriptive research, and the incidence number of cases in the next two years was predicted by the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Results From 2018 to 2022, a total of 8 681 cases of viral hepatitis were reported in the district. The overall reported incidence trend was increasing (χ2=166.91, P<0.01). Among all types of hepatitis, the number of cases of hepatitis B was the largest (accounting for 93.73%). The cases were concentrated in the 15-59 age group (accounting for 89.99%); the male-to-female ratio was 1.8∶1. The ARIMA model predicted the incidence of viral hepatitis in 2023 and 2024 to be 211.32/105 and 229.44/105 respectively. Conclusion The incidence of viral hepatitis in the Huli District in the past five years has remained high, and it is necessary to further strengthen the education on hepatitis prevention and treatment knowledge, strengthen immunization, and pay attention to high-risk groups.