Abstract：Objective To analyze the epidemic status of viral hepatitis in Huli District from 2018 to 2022, so as to provide a basis for prevention and control. Methods The epidemiological data of viral hepatitis in Huli District from 2018 to 2022 were collected, the epidemic characteristics of viral hepatitis were analyzed by descriptive research, and the incidence number of cases in the next two years was predicted by the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Results From 2018 to 2022, a total of 8 681 cases of viral hepatitis were reported in the district. The overall reported incidence trend was increasing (χ2=166.91, P<0.01). Among all types of hepatitis, the number of cases of hepatitis B was the largest (accounting for 93.73%). The cases were concentrated in the 15-59 age group (accounting for 89.99%); the male-to-female ratio was 1.8∶1. The ARIMA model predicted the incidence of viral hepatitis in 2023 and 2024 to be 211.32/105 and 229.44/105 respectively. Conclusion The incidence of viral hepatitis in the Huli District in the past five years has remained high, and it is necessary to further strengthen the education on hepatitis prevention and treatment knowledge, strengthen immunization, and pay attention to high-risk groups.
陈亚娜. 2018—2022年厦门市湖里区病毒性肝炎流行特征及预警分析[J]. 中国校医, 2023, 37(9): 671-674.
CHEN Yana. Analysis of epidemiological characteristics and prediction of viral hepatitis in Huli District of Xiamen City from 2018 to 2022. Chinese Journal of School Doctor, 2023, 37(9): 671-674.
2023, Vol. 37 
