Abstract：Objective To analyze the change trend of life expectancy and main causes of death of Macao residents in China from 2007 to 2020, so as to provide evidences for medical resource allocation and health interventions. Methods The relevant data were collected and sorted out from the official Website of Macao government, China. The data were analyzed by Joinpoint regression model. The trend of life expectancy at birth, standardized total mortality, and standardized mortality of death causes of Macao residents in China from 2007 to 2020 were analyzed, and the mortality of main death causes of Macao residents in China in 2025 was predicted according to the fitting equation of main death causes. Results From 2007 to 2020, the life expectancy of residents in Macao, China increased from 81.9 years to 84.1 years, AAPC=0.202% (t=20.160, P<0.001), and the standardized mortality rate decreased from 290.5/105 to 226.0/105, AAPC=-1.752% (t=-2.698, P=0.007). Malignant tumor, pneumonia, heart diseases, and hypertension have always been the top four causes of death. Except that the standardized mortality of malignant tumor has not decreased significantly, the other causes of death have decreased significantly (P<0.05). It is predicted that in 2025, the top five causes of death may be malignant tumor, hypertension, heart diseases, external causes of disease and death, and cerebrovascular diseases. Conclusion Chronic non-communicable diseases have become the main cause of death of residents in Macao, China. Malignant tumors and cerebrovascular diseases are the key intervention directions in the future.
李武,刘兰兰. 2007—2020年中国澳门居民期望寿命和主要死因Joinpoint回归分析[J]. 中国校医, 2022, 36(9): 673-677.
LI Wu, LIU Lan-lan. Joinpoint regression analysis of life expectancy and main causes of death of Macao residents in China from 2007 to 2020. Chinese Journal of School Doctor, 2022, 36(9): 673-677.
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